The app opens to a screen that shows the phases of the moon for the past 2 days, current day, and next 2 days. Apple will invest its accumulated cash fortune into building an infrastructure to support Car.Star Walk HD - 5 Stars Astronomy Guide takes full advantage of the iPad, making stargazing a fun and amazing activity. Currently, it comes from most cars carrying around their own power generator and fuel. The power (for charging) must come from somewhere. If cars became fully electric, the current power grid and distribution system could not support it. Then Macintosh came along… Apple will unleash equivalent innovations with electric car design.Īpple must also help create an infrastructure that can support everyone switching to Car. It’s like personal computers having a command line interface (like MS-DOS C:/ prompt) because experts who designed them used it with mainframe computers. First, we need a car platform that can eventually become safely autonomous, more precisely and flexibly controllable, NOT the current holdover designs. I think Car will be designed as if the gas-powered car never existed. Why does a Tesla look like it could be a gasoline-powered car? Because they’re designed by automotive experts, and that’s what customers expect.Īpple has a history of giving customers what they don’t know they want, until they see it. But it’s not… The next car revolution is designing cars from the ground up to be fully electric, and creating an infrastructure that can support most cars being electric.Ĭurrent designs are constrained by the legacy of the internal combustion engine, which means there’s a noisy heat source that must to be separated from passengers, a large tank of hazardous liquid fuel to feed engine, centralized power production with bulky mechanical power train, etc. These “experts” are so focused on autonomous cars as the next revolution.
It is only a matter of time until we see aviation-level safety benefits from vehicle autonomy. And tech just keeps getting smaller and smarter. I’m astonished at the progress made towards autonomous vehicles just in the last decade. All of that death and destruction could become a distant memory when full self driving becomes mainstream.
All of that human potential and finance can go into something more productive. Not to mention the massive disruption and opportunity cost of the loss of life. The trial lawyers, insurance, body shops, courts, etc. Think of the massive economies that currently exist because of drunk (or drugged) driving. Considering the calamitously high rates of current injury and death with cars due to inattention (texting), poor driving and drunk driving, breakthroughs in this area will saves millions of lives and billions of dollars. No difficult problem was ever overcome by people sitting around pontificating about how it will never happen. I’m disheartened by the ubiquitous cynicism. We see the breaking point for Tesla to endorse Lidar is when sensor prices decline by 50%, likely a couple years away. We believe the industry, including Tesla, will eventually agree that autonomy will require a combination of Lidar, cameras, and digital radar. Both companies have already begun self-driving taxi services limited to beta users in certain geographic regions, and both say they’re on track to expand public availability of these services late this year… Regarding level 4, the most advanced of these projects continues to be Waymo (Alphabet) and Apollo (Baidu), with Waymo being slightly ahead. It’s possible we see level 3 cars from other big car manufacturers in the coming years, such as Tesla, which has edge level 3 capabilities, now available in the form of FSD beta. In March, Honda (yes, Honda has autonomy ambitions) announced the first-ever production vehicle with level 3 autonomy, which is now available in Japan in limited numbers. Our bottom line: passenger car autonomy will take longer than most think, and ultimately be more transformative than anyone can image. Prior to that, we will likely see level 4 semi-trucks on the road. Our best guess remains unchanged, that 2025 will be the first year of public availability of level 4.
We’re still still years away from seeing self-driving cars become mainstream. Our conclusion is based on findings that despite progress, timelines for most projects continue to be pushed back. Almost all companies are finding that delivering full self-driving is slow going, more challenging than believed six months ago. Loup Ventures recently gathered data from the nine companies leading the race to build fully autonomous systems for passenger cars.
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